President Obama, I suspect, is on a voyage of discovery as he heads into Asia this week. Much of what he finds will displease him.
Asia is one part of the world where the Obama administration’s attempt to blame all its problems on its predecessor rings hollow. George W. Bush did not satisfy everyone in Asia, but when he left office the United States enjoyed better relations with virtually every important Asian country than we had when he took the oath in 2001.
The United States is currently working to re-balance its global stance, shifting interest and attention from the Atlantic to the Pacific. That’s the right thing to do and it’s not really a political issue. Virtually everyone in the United States understands that getting Asia right is vital to our peace and security.
Obama’s first challenge will be that good relations with Asia inevitably involve a strong American commitment to free trade. Even if Asian countries begin to lessen their dependence on export-oriented growth strategies and the American consumer market, free trade with the United States is going to be a core Asian issue far into the future. This is at least as true for India as it is for countries like China, Vietnam and Japan. It’s the attraction of our markets combined with an appreciation of the stability our military commitments provide that give the United States its current unique role in Asian politics.
To lay the foundations of our current position in Asia, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger had to overcome the deep seated reluctance among Republican conservatives to deal with “Red China.” To build on that foundation, Barack Obama is going to have to reassure Asia that, despite the minor and inevitable pandering and rhetorical bluster all presidents need on this subject, he will defend and advance the American commitment to free global trade.
Worse, he’s going to have to convince skeptical Asians that he will bring the American fiscal deficit under control. We owe the Asians hundreds of billions of dollars; they want to make sure that we are responsible debtors.
At the same time, he has to reassure them that our military commitment to Asia is unshakably strong.
Balanced budgets, free trade, strong and credible military commitments: what Asia wants from the United States sounds more like a Republican wish list than a Democratic Party platform. This is no coincidence; in many ways Asian countries are the global equivalent of American ‘red states.’
One quick way to make sense of world politics is this: Europeans are Democrats; Asians are Republicans and the world is moving Asia’s way. Dealing with that is the central strategic challenge of the Obama presidency. I’ll come back to this subject in later posts; the old Atlantic world was a Democratic and even social democratic world. Europeans like international institutions with binding authority; they like human rights-focused diplomacy; they like welfare states; they’d like to see trade linked to worker rights and environmental standards. They hate global warming and ‘neo-liberal’ economic policy and they would happily trade rapid economic growth for stable social and environmental conditions.
Asia has a different set of priorities. As Asia rises, the world order turns red — though not quite in the way Mao expected.
Bon Voyage, Mr. President, and good luck.