All
Features
Reviews
Viewpoints
Podcasts
About Us
Privacy
Live-Blog
The UK Election, Blow-By-Blow
Richard Aldous

Midnight EST

What a night it has been. With around a hundred seats left to declare, Boris Johnson and the Conservative party are on target for a majority of about 70 seats–the party’s best result since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. Their vote share will be around 45 per cent—its best since the 1970s.

Labour in contrast looks as if it will suffer its worst result since the 1930s. Expect an internicine war to follow.

The Scottish Nationalists have swept Scotland. One of their scalps has been Jo Swinson, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, who has had a terrible night both nationally and locally. The DUP in Northern Ireland also lost its parliamentary leader, Nigel Dodds.

Interpretations will flow thick and fast now. Two thoughts.

First, the much (and wrongly) derided British political system has reasserted itself tonight with the people delivering a clear result to move beyond an era of hung parliaments and wafer thin majorities.

Second, and counterintuitively, tonight has seen a return to old fashioned British pragmatism. Labour, the Lib Dems, the DUP, the Brexit party (which hasn’t won a single seat)—all in different ways took extreme views that alienated even their core vote. The SNP in contrast played to its base and also reached beyond it. And Boris Johnson found a winning offer by promising to get on with Brexit and pivoting to the center ground on social issues. That broke the Labour “red wall,” taking advantage of the extraordinary unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn, and decimating labour in its heartlands in the north of England, where it took working class voters for granted.

There will be more analysis of the election on The American Interest website in the coming days.

But that’s it from me on the night Boris Johnson was returned as the UK prime minister.

Goodnight!

11:35 PM EST

Here’s the state of play so far:

11:20 PM EST

Caroline Lucas, the Green Party’s only MP, is reelected for Brighton Pavilion [district]. .

11:15 PM EST

President Trump reacts to the UK election result.

11:10 PM EST

SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon.

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1205337825186594817?s=20

11:00 PM EST

Jeremy Corbyn has likely led the Labour Party to its worst defeat since the 1930s. So surely the party will pivot back to the center ground from where it won three massive victories under Tony Blair?

Not so fast. Jeremy Corbyn not only leads the parliamentary party, he has taken control of all the levers of the party—the “long march” through Labour’s institutions. Momentum, the campaign group that is the vanguard of Corbynism, remains unmoved by the result tonight.

But here’s Ed Balls, the former Labour cabinet minister in Gordon Brown’s government, taking Momentum’s Jon Lansman to task. We’ll be seeing a lot more of this kind bitter exchange in the coming days and weeks.

10:45 PM EST

Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson loses her seat to the Scottish Nationalist Party by 149 votes. It caps a disastrous campaign for the party and for Swinson personally. Her decision to fight the election on the hardline policy of ignoring the Brexit referendum result has proved calamitous.

Swinson talks of “dread and dismay” at the “wave of nationalism sweeping both sides of the border.”

10:40 PM EST

Boris Johnson holds his seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

“I don’t want to tempt fate, but it does look as if this one nation conservative government has been given a powerful mandate … This has turned out to be historic election.”

10:25 PM EST

Jeremy Corbyn in his constituency:

“A very disappointing night for the Labour Party … I will not lead the party in any future election.”

Says he will lead party through a period of reflection and transition to new leader.

10:20 PM EST

Results coming in fast now. In Richmond, Zac Goldsmith loses his seat to Lib Dem Sarah Olney. Goldsmith heavily defeated in a strong “Remain” seat—one of the wealthiest districts in the UK.

It’s the first ray of sunshine on bleak night so far for the Lib Dems.

10:10 PM EST

High profile MP Chuka Umunna, who defected from Labour to the Liberal Democrats (via the failed party Change UK) loses in the Cities of London and Westminster. Labour and the Lib Dems split the “remain” vote, allowing the Conservative through the middle.

10:00 PM EST

Results so far in England. Many of these Conservative gains have come in parts of the country where voting Labour for generations had been a way of life. Labour has lost four elections in a row and is now collapsing even in its heartlands.

9:35 PM EST

North Belfast, Northern Ireland. Pro-Brexit DUP set to lose its parliamentary leader Nigel Dodds.

9:25 PM EST

Jeremy Corbyn arrives at the count in his own constituency [district] of Islington “smiling like a Cheshire Cat.”

9:15 PM

Alistair Campbell, former spin doctor for Tony Blair: “Fundamental truths have to be faced, otherwise Labour faces oblivion.” The Corbynistas are “delusional.”

9:10 PM EST

North Down, Northern Ireland. The centrist, non-sectarian Alliance party win this seat [district], pushing the [Protestant] pro-Brexit Democratic Unionist Party  into second place.

8:55 PM EST

I’ve live-blogged two UK general elections and the Brexit referendum for The American Interest, and they’ve all been dramatic ones minute-by-minute. This one is a a different kind of experience. Tonight the drama was done within seconds of the polls closing. Politicians and commentators moved quickly from “What’s happening” to “Why it happened.”

At the front of my mind is what this result says about the resilience of British democracy. For the last couple of years, analysis in the United States and the EU has often been the “Britain has become a laughing stock” variety. As it turns out, the British people have had the last laugh.

When Theresa May went to the country in 2017, the British electorate delivered a “hung parliament,” saying in effect —we told you what we wanted in the Brexit referendum, now you, the House of Commons, work out a sensible compromise that delivers on a relatively close 48%-52% Brexit referendum result.

After Parliament showed itself incapable of resolving the issue, the people tonight have said, OK, we’ll show you what to do. Get Brexit Done (to coin Boris Johnson’s election slogan).

British Representative Democracy: “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

8:25 PM EST

Workington result: Conservative gain. This was always signaled as the pivotal working class seat of the election if the Conservatives were going to remain in power.

Would “Workington Man” be prepared to vote Conservative?

Yes he would.

7:45 PM EST

Props to John Gray and to Andrew Sullivan, who from very different perspectives wrote about the trends that pointed towards tonight’s result, and did it before the election. (That rare thing: Wise before the event.)

https://twitter.com/JasonCowleyNS/status/1187064333064388609?s=20

 

7:20 PM EST

Alan Johnson, former minister in the Blair government and someone who grew up in poverty, doesn’t mince his words in attacking the Corbynistas in Labour for destroying the party and betraying the working classes.

7:00 PM EST

First thoughts while we wait for more results.

Looked at from the United States, it would be easy for observers to see the Conservative victory tonight as a win for the hard right. That would be a mistake. Boris Johnson is an old fashioned “One Nation” conservative in the tradition of Disraeli, Churchill, and Harold Macmillan. The extremes in this election have been elsewhere: the hard left Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn, who smashed apart Tony Blair’s successful center-left coalition; the Liberal Democrats, who wanted to ignore (not even rerun) the 2016 Brexit referendum; and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which wanted a scorched earth exit from the European Union. In contrast, Johnson pivoted to the center on social issues while listening to and reflecting public sentiment on Brexit. It looks as if voters, especially in England, decided this was the common sense option.

Tonight is a triumph for Johnson, but it is also a reaffirmation of the resilience of the British electoral system. The Brexit referendum put parliament and the people in conflict. The issue was put back to the people, who have now delivered a clear directive.

That’s constitutional politics working, folks.

6:40 PM EST

First results: Labour holds Newcastle Central and Sunderland. No surprises there. But in Blyth Valley, also in the north-east, the CONSERVATIVES have taken the seat. An extraordinary result. This is a former mining constituency, where the Conservatives traditionally have been—there is no other word for it—hated.

This is a symbolic moment in the night. Boris Johnson’s bid to create a new kind of conservatism to appeal to working class voters is already paying off. The new Conservative MP Ian Levy pays direct tribute to him in his victory speech.

6:15 PM EST

It’s been 80 minutes since the polls closed. Normally we would have had the first result by now. It always comes from seats in the north-east of England where they may as well weigh the Labour vote as count it. The fact that the results are still not in gives an indication of what a night it is going to be. The Conservatives are breaking down the so-called “Red Wall”—the parts of England that have been Labour for generations and where the Conservatives have been toxic. Now those seats are too close to call.

There’s always a danger of hyperbole on these occasions, but let’s be clear: The tectonic plates of British politics are shifting tonight.

6:05 PM EST

Brit-in-New York commentator Andrew Sullivan (who was at Oxford with Boris Johnson in the 1980s) points out some transatlantic implications of the collapse of the Labour vote.

5:55 PM EST

Two different perspectives on the likely result. “Rejoice!” says the right of center Daily Mail. “Nightmare Before Christmas!” says the left of center Daily Mirror.

5:45 PM EST

Sometime TAI contributor Shadi Hamid taking a position on the election

5:35 PM EST

Now the wait begins. The constituencies [districts] in the north east of England always race to be first to declare a result, but the pace of results won’t pick up for a few hours yet.

The Exit Poll is only a forecast, but if it’s anywhere close to being right, then obviously the result is a massive win for Boris Johnson. He gambled on calling the election. Now he’s delivered the best result for the Conservative party since Margaret Thatcher in 1987.

For Labour, the election is a disaster. They’re set to lose seats [districts] in the north of England and the Midlands that they’ve held for generations. Expect the internal war for the future of the Left to start immediately. Jeremy Corbyn and his brand of hard-left politics was unacceptable to traditional Labour voters. Anti-semitism in the party disgusted even loyal supporters. It’s all a long way from Tony Blair’s historic landslide in 1997.

In Scotland, the SNP looks likely to increase it hold, which means there’s a confrontation coming over Scottish independence.

And Brexit, of course. The issue has obsessed the country since 2016. This election means that Britain will be leaving the European Union.

 

5:10 PM EST

Here’s the full exit poll forecast

5:00 PM EST

The BBC/ITV/SKY Exit Poll is in.

Here’s the prediction: CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

Boris Johnson is on target for a majority of 80+

Labour looks set for its worst election in modern times.

4:55 PM EST

Welcome to TAI’s coverage of the UK General Election!

The polls close in 5 minutes. Will Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s gamble of calling an election pay off, or is Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn heading to 10 Downing Street?

We’ll get the first indication in the Exit Poll at 5 pm.

https://twitter.com/BenJonesPicEd/status/1205200110180806656?s=20

 

Published on: December 12, 2019
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.
© The American Interest LLC 2005-2025
About Us Privacy
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.