If Obama pivoted to Asia, then Trump has pivoted to Eurasia. American decision makers seem increasingly aware that the new center of gravity in world politics is not the Pacific and not the Atlantic, but the Old World between the two.
The next war on Israel’s north will not simply be a more destructive replay of the 2006 Lebanon War, but will likely involve many more actors on multiple fronts, unprecedented challenges for escalation management, warfighting, and conflict termination—and the possibility of a regional conflagration.
An escalating sanctions war, a series of unpopular economic reforms, and elite discontent threaten to embolden Putin’s critics and discredit his “besieged fortress” narrative.
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